Heat decreases productivity: climate change and job loss, Indian textile industry

It will get worse for people living and working in cities. Heat rises and climatic events put jobs, and people’s safety at risk. The system must adapt. The case of India

Eighty billion jobs lost by 2030 due to climate change

Climate change has obvious and less obvious effects. On the one hand it is immediately clear and worrying how it affects the planet, biodiversity, nature and, in the long run, even our survival. On the other, there are other, less immediate but still tragic, consequences. One of these is the loss of jobs. One of the main effects of global warming is rising temperatures, creating what is called thermal stress. 

Thermal stress, claims ILO, the International Labour Organization, will be responsible for the loss of eighty billion jobs – a revenue of two point four billion dollars – by 2030. This is considering a one point five Celsius degree rise – which now almost looks optimistic, and not considering informal economy. Job loss and workers safety must be factored in among the risks related to climate change.

India – Loss of jobs related to climate change: who will suffer more

The most affected fields will be the ones that are more exposed to nature and high temperatures. First of all, agriculture, where severe weather events, like heat waves but also droughts and floods, have a direct impact. Not only does the job involve being outside, often with no shelter for human beings – crops will also be affected. In the immediate future, it may no longer be possible to raise the same crops in the same areas, due to a shifting climate. 

Farmers will need to adapt, but local knowledge – and jobs – will be lost in the process. Jobs in construction are also at a high risk, especially for the health of workers. Being outside is marginal – often they work close to concrete, which heats up even more. Roofers, electricians, and general contractors are worrying. Emergency services are also losing jobs – as the climate gets more dangerous, emergency responders are more at risk. As a consequence, the job becomes less desirable. Rising sea levels and weather crisis will also impact the manufacturing industry, disrupting the supply chain. 

The same events will also affect retail, as goods may struggle to reach shops worldwide depending on climate conditions. Tourism will suffer, too. With the rise of sea levels and storms and floods, popular coastal destinations will become less popular. Industries like fishing and forestry are also in danger, due to both rising temperatures and popular conscience, more and more careful to protect habitats. 

How heat decreases productivity, leading to job loss in India

Research shows that productivity can drop as much as four percent per degree when temperature is over twenty-seven Celsius. While a one-degree increase in the ten-day temperature average, raises the probability that a worker will be absent by five percent. Lower productivity and absence on the job create less productivity, more instability and thus a higher risk of losing more jobs. 

Hotter years are connected to less revenue for countries around the world – showing how, as temperatures rise, people become less productive in the workplace. Industries and institutions must embrace adaptation processes to protect the economic welfare and especially the safety and well-being of workers.

India and job loss due to global warming: a case study 

India is the third largest economy in the world and the most populated nation on earth, home to nearly 20% of the world’s population. It is also one of the areas that are most affected by climate change. There, the temperature is expected to rise even more compared to the global average. It is a case study worth considering. Deadly heat waves and droughts are already affecting the country, with devastating effects. 

Since 1992, more than twenty-four thousand people have died because of heat waves in India, a new study found. Long-term projections indicate that Indian heat waves could cross the survivability limit for a healthy human resting in the shade by 2050. Profound consequences on the job market are already happening. 

Last year, India had already lost two hundred fifty-nine billion hours of work annually due to climate change. It will get worse. This loss already cost India more than six hundred billion dollars, equivalent to almost seven percent of the country’s 2017 GDP. 

Inequality in climate change induced job losses – India case

Globally, humid heat may currently be associated with over six hundred and fifty billion hours of annual lost labor, meaning a hundred and forty-eight million full-time equivalent jobs lost. By 2030, it is estimated that two point to percent of the hours worked annually worldwide will be lost. It is not hard to see how this will affect the livelihood of concerned nations. 

Not all nations will be equally affected, deepening the already dramatic socioeconomic divide. Poorer areas of the world will suffer more. The worst impact will be in South Asia and West Africa with some 43.9 million jobs lost by 2030. This will add up to the already tragic state of economic disadvantages, high concentration of poor workers, and absence of social protection. 

More jobs will be lost in cities. Factoring in informal jobs too – making up for the vast majority of poorer economies – in Africa the equivalent of more than fourteen million full-time jobs will no longer exist because of heat stress. 

India – new jobs related to climate change, but more inequality

On the other hand, some new jobs will also be created due to needs related to climate change. Thousands of jobs will be created, for instance, in the clean-energy sector. Once again, though, this will worsen the divide. In some US Republican states, low-carbon industries will outweigh losses – but this is just in already rich countries, whose development in the low-carbon industry is advanced. 

«When I think of climate change», Biden twitted, «I think about jobs». Yet, once again, it’s not jobs for all. Even in the US, heatwaves are becoming deadlier for workers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists 436 workplace deaths between 2011 and 2021 due to exposure to high heat. Most of which concentrated during summertime when heat strikes the most. It is mostly low-paid workers who cannot avoid going out to do their job as a matter of livelihood, even on the hottest days. 

Policy does not seem to be working either – The Occupational Safety and Health Administration is now drafting a heat standard for workplaces but can do little to nothing to protect workers from heat if business owners do not cooperate. There seems to be no way the Administration can force businesses to shut down at given times due to climate conditions.  

Global warming and job: transformation is the only way

Climate change will get worse and deadly heat waves will hit more and more frequently across the globe. Droughts and extreme climatic events will also rise in frequency and severity. Business as usual will not be a viable solution. There will be no alternative to having to adapt to shifting conditions. Deep transformation is the only way to do it. 

A change of mindset is necessary: changing how we think about work and the value of guaranteeing safety and shelter on the job. A new framework must be created if we are to keep lives and livelihoods safe for all. This can only be achieved through international cooperation and the creation of common standards of basic dignity for workers. In this context, public institutions should be prioritized over the interests of private businesses.

ILO 

The International Labour Organization (ILO) is a United Nations agency whose mandate is to advance social and economic justice by setting international labor standards.

Matilde Moro