Burning paradises: El Niño hitting islands. Does mass tourism take part of the blame?

The wildfires that occurred in the Mediterranean and Pacific islands generated a catastrophe fueled by heat waves. From Greece to Maui, overcrowded island threat ecosystem

Wildfires: The world’s islands are burning because of climate change

Lethal wildfires that occurred in the most tourism-dense and hottest islands of the world have resulted in the death of thousands of individuals, displacement, loss and trauma. These fires were driven by a combination of terrestrial and atmospheric conditions conducive to the development of fire-friendly weather.

July 2023 was outlined by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, an organization funded by the European Union for research, as the warmest month in Earth’s history and many experts believe that this record is likely to be surpassed soon. Petteri Taalas, the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization, traced a map describing this occurrence as a glimpse into the forthcoming reality, offering insight into what lies ahead.

Why are wildfires spreading more easily on the islands? The situation in the Mediterranean and the Hawaii

This year’s impact of El Niño has induced drought extending across the entire Pacific region and the Mediterranean Sea, triggering substantial fires even on islands that typically have high levels of rainfall. As climate change is projected to heighten the intensity of both heavy rainfall events and droughts, these fire cycles will also grow in intensity. Given these conditions, predicting fire seasons and suppressing fires will become more challenging tasks.

Dissimilar to continental forest fires, the majority of fires in the Pacific Islands primarily consume grasslands, shrublands, and savannas, which encompass more than a quarter of the total land area of these islands. Present-day grasslands and shrublands in Hawaii are dominated by non-native species introduced in the last century for purposes such as forage, erosion control, and landscaping. Due to the widespread abandonment of plantation and grazing lands in recent decades, these invasive, fire-prone plants cover a staggering one million acres across the Hawaiian Islands. This has led to a fourfold increase in the annual burned area across the entire island chain. Moreover, climate exerts influence over fires in the Pacific Islands beyond just drought. 

The tropical grasses that serve as fuel for most fires accumulate biomass during periods of abundant rainfall. Once the rainfall diminishes, these fuel sources dry out, escalating the risk of fire. The distinct wet and dry seasons experienced by many islands create a conducive environment for annual fire cycles, even when rainfall is considered normal. 

The wildfires in Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii. The most lethal wildfire in the United States’ history

The historic town of Lahaina on Maui has been severely devastated with more than 2,700 structures reduced to ruins. This incident marked the most lethal wildfire in the United States in over a hundred years. Hawaiian Electric Company acknowledged that power lines falling in high winds seem to have caused the starting fire during the early morning of August 8. But how was it possible that a fire that could be contained and extinguished within a few hours was able to generate a catastrophe of enormous proportions? Prior warnings from the National Weather Service indicated a red flag situation due to prolonged dry conditions, causing the vegetation and surroundings to be dry and susceptible to ignition.

Governor Josh Greene attributed this situation to the intersection of factors such as global warming, drought, and the presence of a powerful offshore hurricane generating significant winds. In fact, when the wildfires emerged, a significant portion of Hawaii was under a red flag warning due to the risk of fires. This warning was due to the dangerous high winds generated by Hurricane Dora, a Category 4 storm situated hundreds of miles south of the Hawaiian islands as it moved across the Pacific Ocean. The alert pointed out that fires can originate a considerable distance away from their source due to the upward movement of wind-driven embers and the subsequent ignition of sparks downwind. These factors, along with low humidity and strong winds, created an environment favorable to the wildfires.

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Maui, Hawaii, like the rest of the world: increasing global temperature intensify the risk of wildfires

Meteorologists at the University of Hawaii have discovered, through advanced computer simulations of climate patterns that forecast alterations, that with the planet’s increasing temperatures, arid areas of Hawaii will experience exacerbated dryness, thereby intensifying the risk of wildfires. Concurrently, the more humid regions will encounter heightened levels of precipitation. Particularly, the less water-abundant parts of the state have reasons to be concerned about the availability of freshwater for residential, commercial, and agricultural needs in the future. 

The anticipated shifts in rainfall are poised to impact the distribution of plant species in Hawaii, negatively affecting some distinctive native varieties like the silversword, while promoting the growth of certain invasive grass species that contribute to the elevated fire threat. The towering mountains on the main islands obstruct the prevailing trade winds, resulting in abundant rain on windward slopes and arid ‘rain shadow’ conditions on the leeward side. Regions like Maui’s west coast, encompassing tourist communities including Lahaina, fall under such rain shadows. Hawaii’s striking contrasts in average rainfall rates over minute distances have posed a considerable challenge in predicting future climate alterations.

Hawaii’s climate at the close of the 21st century under a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions persist at a rate leading to a global temperature increase of around 4 degrees Fahrenheit (2.2°C).

Fire weather: when specific conditions are responsible for initiating and inciting wildfires

Approximately 85 percent of wildfires are attributed to human causes, as reported by the National Park Service. These fires often originate accidentally due to factors like neglecting campfires, improper disposal of cigarettes, burning debris, and the improper use of various types of equipment. Deliberate acts of arson also contribute to human-caused wildfires, according to the agency. Among the natural causes of wildfires, lightning and volcanic activity stand out, although lightning strikes are notably more frequent in starting fires.

Meteorologist Nick Nauslar, a former weather forecaster at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center, explained in a 2018 FAQ published by the agency that elements such as strong winds, low relative humidity, unstable atmospheric conditions, and thunderstorms collectively create what meteorologists term fire weather. Typically, lightning strikes a tree and initiates a fire, but forceful winds can also trigger power lines, which can then ignite wildfires when dry vegetation like brush or grass is nearby. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) emphasizes that wildfires can rapidly propagate under hot, dry, and windy circumstances, especially when these conditions intersect. 

Heatwaves and wildfires are changing the Mediterranean’s landscape

In a mere span of 12 days, an expanse of 135 000 hectares of land was left scorched across southern Europe as fires erupted in mid-July. Italy and Greece bore the brunt, encompassing the islands of Rhodes, Corfu, and Sicily. Fueled by powerful winds and a heatwave that brought temperatures soaring above 40°C (104°F), these wildfires have left the land desolate, resulting in the loss of at least 40 lives and forcing thousands more to flee. On the opposite side of the Mediterranean, vast wildfires in Algeria and Tunisia have caused numerous fatalities and prompted widespread evacuations.  

Historically, wildfires have been a natural part of the life cycle within Mediterranean ecosystems. However, as larger and more intense fires become increasingly common, we are most likely to be observing a permanent transformation in the Mediterranean’s landscape.

Greece is using back-fire to combat wildfires on the islands of Corfu, Rhode and Crete

Counter-fires (also known as backfires) can be intentionally ignited within a Controlled Prescribed Burn to deprive a fire of the necessary fuel for its expansion. A backfire refers to a fire deliberately started ahead of an active fire front, typically in cases of forest fires, grass fires, or other forms of wildfires. The ignited backfire consumes a portion of the combustible materials, establishing a barrier of fire that the wildfire finds challenging to cross. In the most favorable scenario, the backfire can effectively halt the fire’s progression. 

The optimal outcome is achieved when the counter-fire is positioned so closely to the fire front that it eventually gets drawn back towards the original fire. This is feasible due to the upward movement of warm air from a large fire, which consistently draws in air. When placed at the correct distance, the backfire will advance in the direction of the primary fire without spreading to other areas. Controlled burning promotes the sprouting of certain desirable forest trees and exposes mineral layers in the soil, enhancing the vitality of seedlings and facilitating forest renewal. 

Other well-known techniques for containing wildfires include fire retardants, water, and firebreak lines or zones.  

Wildfires in Canary Islands, Spain: the drier climate allowed arson to spread more quickly

In Tenerife, Spain, the wildfire was intentionally ignited, as confirmed by Fernando Clavijo, the regional President of the Canary Islands. Despite that fact, the fire spread uncontrollably due to enhanced weather conditions.  

The Canary Islands have been grappling with drought conditions for a major portion of the past years, similar to the situation on the mainland. The islands have registered below-average precipitation in recent times due to shifting weather patterns influenced by climate change. 

Around 11 600 hectares of pine forest and scrubland have been consumed by the fire. Described as the most severe fire witnessed on Tenerife in decades, the blaze endangered 11 town areas located adjacent to a rugged and steep mountainous terrain. 

The state weather service in Spain, like the rest of Southern Europe, had projected a gradual rise in temperatures, reaching up to 40 degrees Celsius in certain mainland regions. 

According to the European Forest Fire Information System, Spain holds the highest position among EU countries impacted by wildfires this year, with 75 000 hectares burnt, surpassing Italy and Greece.

Wildfires in Southern Europe: the Mediterranean is still overcrowded by tourists as if the climate crisis isn’t happening

The Mediterranean climate contributes to scorching and exceedingly dry summers. While wildfires perpetually feature in global events, they tend to gain more prominence in the media when they encroach upon inhabited areas. Wildfires are not exclusively attributed to climate change, contrary to prevailing assumptions. Historical records attest to the enduring presence of fires during the summer season. However, there exists an anticipation that the impact of global warming will escalate the severity of fires, rendering them more intense. 

This shift is projected to extend beyond Mediterranean regions, extending northward and occurring more frequently in areas characterized by a temperate continental climate, akin to that found in the Netherlands. As articulated by the European Environment Agency, adherence to the Paris climate targets, entailing a warming threshold of less than 2 degrees Celsius, would ostensibly curtail the risk associated with weather-related fires. On the contrary, should current emission patterns persist, the peril is poised to surge considerably throughout Europe.

The wildfires map: the Greek islands of Rhodes and Corfu, Sicily, Sardinia and Tenerife

The wildfires raging across the Greek islands of Rhodes and Corfu, Sicily, Sardinia and Tenerife are serving as a stark reminder that beloved holiday getaways are no longer secure as the impact of climate change intensifies. Throughout the past several decades, the Mediterranean has been a magnet for tourists seeking respite during the Northern Hemisphere’s summer season. Yet, some changes are in motion from governments to prevent the sites from succumbing to mass tourism. 

Popular Italian destinations like Venice and Sardinia are introducing bans, controls and fees to try to manage the crowds. In Athens, the Acropolis has been shuttered due to the extreme conditions. As described in a statement by Dimitris Fragakis, Secretary-General of the Greek National Tourism Organisation (GNTO), Greece has asked tourists to respect the local communities – that are often kicked out of their houses and neighbourhood due to over tourism – hence, explore beyond the islands and not only in the summer months.

Wildfire

A forest fire, bushfire, wildland fire or rural fire is an unplanned, uncontrolled and unpredictable fire in an area of combustible vegetation.

Martina Tondo